FocusEconomics Eastern Europe

CEE Economic Outlook

Which countries' GDP will be most affected by Covid-19?

CEE -5.5%

The pandemic will deal a severe blow to the regional economy this year. Evaporating external demand, business closures, disrupted European supply chains and uncertain economic perspectives will depress investment activity. Moreover, growing jobless numbers and rising precautionary savings will hammer consumption. Possible new outbreaks of the pandemic cloud the outlook.

Note: FocusEconomics forecasts are based on an average of predictions from banks, private forecasters and local think-tanks in each country

The economy will take a notable hit this year, hammered by social distancing measures and business closures. Rising jobless numbers and weakening wage dynamics will likely further constrain household spending, while evaporating external demand and the uncertain health perspectives weigh on investment decisions. A second wave of Covid-19 cases clouds the outlook.

GDP is expected to contract markedly this year due to the Covid-19 health crisis. While a feeble global trading environment is set to cripple the external sector, domestic containment measures will hamper household and capital spending, and weigh on employment. Fiscal stimulus and liquidity-boosting measures should provide a cushion, however.

The economy is set to contract notably this year, as lockdown measures, an unfavorable economic environment in the EU and severed global value chains hit both external and domestic demand. The country’s solid fiscal and external metrics should cushion the fall, however, although further jumps in new registered cases pose downside risks.

The economy is expected to shrink markedly this year as restrictions to halt the spread of coronavirus and severed global value chains hammer private consumption and fixed investment. A further downside risk is the country’s fragile and worsening fiscal outlook, which raises the possibility of a credit rating downgrade to junk status.

The economy is expected to contract severely this year, pounded by the
pandemic. Shrinking investment activity and a drop in consumer spending
are set to drive the downturn in domestic demand, while collapsed foreign
demand will likely hamper the external sector. Greater public spending
should soften the blow somewhat, however.

The economy is expected to contract sharply this year as Covid-19 and related containment measures shutters demand. Moreover, the manufacturing sector’s deep integration with European supply chains renders the key industrial sector vulnerable to the EU-wide recession. The bold policy response by the government, however, should cushion the downturn somewhat.

The economy is seen contracting severely this year. Shrinking investment
activity and constrained private consumption are set to spearhead the
overall downturn, with the external sector also hit hard amid a drop in tourist arrivals and hampered intra-EU trade. Higher public spending should soften the downturn, however.

GDP is expected to shrink significantly this year, as Covid-19 wreaks havoc
on the economy. Sliding private consumption and plunging investment
activity are set to erode domestic demand, while a collapse in foreign demand and depressed tourist arrivals will likely hamper the external sector.
Higher public spending should soften the overall downturn, however.

The export-oriented economy is set to contract this year as Covid-19 takes
its toll. Capital spending will decline amid deteriorating sentiment and
heightened uncertainties, with the automotive industry being particularly
hard hit. In addition, exports are set to slump on downbeat European
demand and falling tourist arrivals.

The economy is seen shrinking this year due to the hit from the coronavirus
pandemic. Disrupted global supply chain and subdued European demand
are set to depress exports, while domestic containment measures will
hammer household and capital spending. That said, fiscal and liquidity-boosting measures should provide a cushion.

The economy is forecast to shrink markedly this year due to the coronavirus impact, particularly as it takes a heavy toll on the crucial travel and hospitality industry. Languishing activity in Italy and Germany, the country’s main trading partners, is also set to dent exports, while investment will plunge amid elevated uncertainty and delay in projects.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts average the predictions of leading forecasters to provide you with one objective, reliable number you can trust. 

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