FocusEconomics ASEAN November 2020

ASEAN Economic Outlook

ASEAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Singapore and Vietnam post starkly different Q3 GDP growth results

Singapore

Singapore

The economy contracted at a significantly slower pace in Q3 than in Q2, according to advanced estimates, pointing to a nascent recovery in activity. The easing of circuit breaker policies and the phased reopening of the economy throughout Q3 lifted some pressure off the construction and services sectors. Meanwhile, stronger export demand for electronics saw growth return in the manufacturing sector, corroborated by the electronics PMI hitting the highest level in two years in September and strong non-oil export growth across July–September. Moving into Q4, the continued reopening of the economy and low number of new daily Covid-19 cases should further support the recovery: High frequency data indicates that retail activity has returned close to its pre-pandemic levels in mid-October, boding well for an uptick in consumer spending in the final quarter of the year.

Source: FocusEconomics Asia Pacific Consensus Forecast November 2020

Vietnam

Vietnam

The economy expanded at a faster pace in Q3 than in Q2 according to recent data, in stark contrast to other large ASEAN economies, all of which likely contracted in the period. Activity was aided by the relatively successful containment of Covid-19, which meant the country was able to avoid large-scale lockdowns. The services sector returned to growth in the quarter, while the industrial and agricultural sectors grew at faster rates relative to Q2. Moreover, exports rose markedly, supported by the lifting of lockdowns abroad. However, an outbreak centered on the city of Da Nang in late July led to some localized restrictions and took the edge off the rebound. Turning to the fourth quarter, the economy should continue to gather steam, although a downtrodden tourism sector and the reimposition of restrictions in many countries will hit the external sector and drag on momentum.

 

Source: FocusEconomics Asia Pacific Consensus Forecast November 2020

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Singapore

Nov 2020

The economy contracted at a significantly slower pace in Q3 than in Q2, according to advanced estimates, pointing to a nascent recovery in activity. The easing of circuit breaker policies and the phased reopening of the economy throughout Q3 lifted some pressure off the construction and services sectors. Meanwhile, stronger export demand for electronics saw growth return in the manufacturing sector, corroborated by the electronics PMI hitting the highest level in two years in September and strong non-oil export growth across July–September. Moving into Q4, the continued reopening of the economy and low number of new daily Covid-19 cases should further support the recovery: High frequency data indicates that retail activity has returned close to its pre-pandemic levels in mid-October, boding well for an uptick in consumer spending in the final quarter of the year.

Source: FocusEconomics Asia Pacific Consensus Forecast November 2020

Vietnam

Nov 2020

The economy expanded at a faster pace in Q3 than in Q2 according to recent data, in stark contrast to other large ASEAN economies, all of which likely contracted in the period. Activity was aided by the relatively successful containment of Covid-19, which meant the country was able to avoid large-scale lockdowns. The services sector returned to growth in the quarter, while the industrial and agricultural sectors grew at faster rates relative to Q2. Moreover, exports rose markedly, supported by the lifting of lockdowns abroad. However, an outbreak centered on the city of Da Nang in late July led to some localized restrictions and took the edge off the rebound. Turning to the fourth quarter, the economy should continue to gather steam, although a downtrodden tourism sector and the reimposition of restrictions in many countries will hit the external sector and drag on momentum.

 

Source: FocusEconomics Asia Pacific Consensus Forecast November 2020

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